From the Desk of DCS

September General Meeting

The next Lycoming County Amateur Radio Operators' Open General Meeting will be held at the Department of Public Safety (DPS) Lycoming County DCS 542 County Farm Road, Montoursville, on

Wednesday September 5, 2007

7 PM.

PLEASE USE THE FRONT DOOR

  The program for our June meeting will be a presentation by Rob Paulhamus, K3RWP on the topic of 10 meter antennas.

  With the new FCC changes to the Technician Class privileges, and the opening up of the 10 meter band voice (SSB) allocations in 28.300 -28.500 MHz range to the Technicians, there is an increased interest for the newcomers to the band to go on-the-air with the proper antennas and equipment.

Visit SuitSat.org for launch updates and sighting reports. Lycoming County

EMA Coordintor

Les Gruver Retires

  Lycoming County Department of Public Safety Emergency Management Agency coordinator Les Gruver, N3LEQ , retired effective July 6^th, 2007. Richard Knecht will replace him as

Lycoming County EMA coordinator.

  Les Gruver became the Lycoming County EMA coordinator in October 1988. Previously, Les was the Borough of Montgomery EMA coordinator since 1965 and an active member of the borough’s volunteer fire department. 

  Over the nineteen years of his service, Les Gruver advanced the County EMA to a program that is a model of the state, including improved use of technology and communications, the county’s flood warning system including automated rain and stream gauges.

  Les encouraged the participation of the local Amateur Radio operators in volunteer community service through the Lycoming County Disaster Communication Service (DCS), as well as being a point of contact for individuals seeking information about Amateur Radio licensing.

We all wish Les well in his retirement, and hope to see him on-the air for many years to come.

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Sunspot Cycle Update

ARRL NEWINGTON, CT, --The next solar cycle, Cycle 24, will be a year or so late in arriving but will be far more intense than the current cycle now winding down--perhaps as much as 50 percent stronger. That's according to a new computer model unveiled March 6 by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. The researchers developed the first "solar climate" forecast using a combination of groundbreaking observations of the sun's interior from space and computer simulation. Key to predicting the solar activity cycle is an understanding of plasma flows in the sun's interior.

 The new technique of "helioseismology" allows researchers to see inside the sun. Helioseismology traces sound waves reverberating inside the sun to build up a picture of the interior, similar to the way ultrasound technology can create a picture of an unborn baby. The new model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, has simulated the strength of the past eight solar cycles extending back to the early 1900s with 98 percent accuracy.

If proved correct the forecast offers a sort of bad news/good news scenario for Amateur Radio operators, but not all solar scientists agree with the newest prediction. NASA solar physicist David Hathaway has declared that Cycle 23's solar minimum already has arrived. Nonetheless, Hathaway, who was not involved in the Dikpati study, says he is excited about the new model.

"It's based on sound physical principals, and it finally answers the 150-year-old question of what causes the 11-year sunspot cycle," Hathaway said.

Hathaway says his own research concurs that Cycle 24 will be more intense than Cycle 23. However, he predicts the next solar cycle will begin late this year or early next year rather than a year later. He points out that historical data suggest that the more powerful cycles begin earlier rather than later.

Under the model developed by Dikpati and her colleagues, the poor HF propagation of Cycle 23's terminal stages won't reverse course until late 2007 or early 2008, and Cycle 24 won't peak until 2012. But higher intensity normally means more and longer HF band openings--with the exception of solar storms. As the sunspot cycle bottoms out, however, conditions can be more favorable for VHF and UHF operation.

Average daily sunspot numbers were up a little, rising more than five points to 12.4. After a short period of no sunspots, we are back to seeing a spot or two every day. Expect these conditions to continue, possibly falling back to zero spots again around August 16-20.  New predictions for smoothed sunspot numbers in coming months seem to appear almost monthly from the Space Environment Center (SEC). Now the estimate for smoothed sunspot number in December 2007 has risen from 21 to 24.

This three-month moving average of sunspot numbers is turning out to be a nice indicator of cycle trends, with the average smoothly declining from December through March and increasing since. “We'll know some day, perhaps in a year or two, if the low number in March is a good indicator of cycle minimum or not. Users of Scott Craig's Solar Data Plotting Utility may have noticed that this cycle minimum so far doesn't look as long as the previous minimum around 1995-1997. But if we are at the minimum or just passed it, then we are only looking at probably half of its eventual length on the graph. I hope the upturn comes soon, and is dramatic.”

Hamfests

DISASTER  COMMUNICATIONS  SERVICE  -  (DCS) 2007 Meeting Schedule

Test Sessions

VEC Test Fee 2006 $14.00

10-Nov-2007

Sponsor: TIOGA COUNTY ARC

Time: 9:00 AM (Walk-ins allowed)

Contact: H LEE HOAR

(570)659-5256

VEC: ARRL/VEC

Location: SENIOR CITIZENS CENTER

QUEEN STREET

REGISTRATION AT 8:30 AM

WELLSBORO, PA 16901

11-Sep-2007 09-Oct-2007 13-Nov-2007 11-Dec-2007

Sponsor: COLUMBIA-MONTOUR ARC

Time: 6:00 PM (No walk-ins)

Contact: JAMES S HANCOCK

(570)864-0130

Email: KB3ICM@ARRL.NET

VEC: ARRL/VEC

Location: SHILO BIBLE CHURCH

CHURCH STREET

PRE-REGISTRATION REQUIRED!

ALMEDIA, PA 17815